Las Vegas Raiders vs Seattle Seahawks Matchup Preview - November 27th, 2022


Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders faceoff against Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks enter the game as a favorite (-200) as the home team. Seattle is currently favored by -4.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 47.5.

Seattle's primary advantage has been their run offense, which ranks #2 in football at 5.12 yards per carry. What makes the Seahawks run game success all the more noteworthy is how often they've faced a stacked box: 11.5% of the time, the #4-most of any team. Try as opposing defensives might to put an extra body near the line of scrimmage, Seattle hasn't been thwarted. Given their ground game success, this has opened up opportunities through the air too; Seattle's 7.8 yards per target puts them #6 in football. This presents a decided advantage for Seattle given that the Raiders haven't had much success in stopping the run this year, giving up 4.6 yards per carry (#19-worst in the NFL). When it comes to their defense, the Seahawks check in at #30 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 250 yards per game against Seattle this year (#24 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 against them with 4.92 yards per ground attempt. This Seahawks defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, keeping them in check at just 7.31 yards per target (#5-best in the league). Seattle's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have scorched them for 78 yards per game (#1-worst in the league).

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #4 in the league with 4.91 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Las Vegas's o-line ranks #3-best in this regard. This represents a particular advantage for Las Vegas given that the Seahawks have struggled so much to stop the run this year, allowing 4.92 yards per carry (#8-worst in the league). In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #27 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 251 yards per game through the air against them (#25 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #14 with 4.6 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank #5 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 49 yards per game (#1-worst).

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Derek Carr to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (7.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.5% in games he has played).

  • The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles rank as the 6th-best group of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

  • The Sharp Model projects Davante Adams to notch 0.57 receiving TDs in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.

Seattle Seahawks Insights

  • The weatherman calls for light rain in this game... which typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

  • Geno Smith's passing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 72.5%.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.57 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Seattle Seahawks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+12.30 Units / 73% ROI)

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.70 Units / 26% ROI)

  • Geno Smith has hit the Completions Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 35% ROI)