Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) will battle the Denver Broncos (3-6). Oddsmakers peg the Broncos as the favorite with an implied win probablity of 57%, leaving the Raiders with a 43% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Broncos -2.5 with a Game Total of 41.5.

Denver's primary advantage has been their defense, which has allowed a scant 313 yards per game -- #2-best in the NFL. They've succeeded in large part due to their pass defense, which has held opposing air attacks to the #1-least yards per game: 196. The Denver Broncos pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing wide receivers, who have managed just 118 yards per game against them (#32-least in football). Denver's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #1 unit in the NFL in this regard. Denver's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #7 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. This presents a decided advantage for Denver given that the Raiders haven't had much success throwing the ball this year, managing a mere 6.69 yards per target (good for #11-worst in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Broncos check in at #25 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 223 yards per game (#23 in football). Their run game has ranked #30 with 3.73 yards per attempt on the ground.

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #3 in the league with 5.07 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Las Vegas's o-line ranks #2-best in this regard. In terms of their defense, the Raiders have ranked #29 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 275 yards per game through the air against them (#27 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #19 with 4.73 yards per carry. Positionally, perhaps their best defensive asset has been their defensive ends, which rank #3 in the league in terms of stopping the run. Las Vegas has been least effective in shutting down opposing running backs, giving up 48 yards per game (#1-worst).

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

  • The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • The Denver Broncos defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Denver Broncos Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Russell Wilson to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (16.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.4% in games he has played).

  • Russell Wilson's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.3% to 55.8%.

  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

Betting Trends

  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+2.80 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+3.40 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Melvin Gordon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.15 Units / 32% ROI)