Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022

Editor

The Las Vegas Raiders come in as 3.5 point road underdog as they travel to SoFi Stadium to play the Los Angeles Chargers. The last time these two teams played was in Week 18 of 2021. That game produced a lot of points, as the visiting Raiders pulled off the road win 35-32. Las Vegas entered that game as a 3.0 point road underog. They had an implied win probablity of only 40% before pulling of the upset. The Game Total for that game was 50.0 and which the Over hit.

Los Angeles's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 4.88 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #3 spot among the league's worst. When teams struggle defending the run, they often bring an extra defender up near the line of scrimmage. The Chargers have elected not to do much of this, however, stacking the box the #10-least of any team in football -- just 13.8% of the time. Chargers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #8-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Los Angeles given that the Raiders ground game has been so good this year, rushing for 4.05 yards per carry (#21-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Chargers check in at #8 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 286 yards per game (#9 in football). Their run game has ranked #8 with 4.48 yards per attempt on the ground.

Las Vegas's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #4 in the league while allowing just 317 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #5-least yards per game: 204. That's not to take anything away from their run defense, though, which checks in at #8 in yards per carry (4.25). The Raiders have done the best job shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to 121 yards per game (#2-best). Las Vegas's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive ends, which check in as the #3-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Raiders have ranked #10 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 290 yards per game (#8 in football). On the ground they've ranked #21 with 4.05 yards per carry.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Derek Carr to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (9.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).

  • The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.

  • THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to accumulate 0.36 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among TEs.

Los Angeles Chargers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Justin Herbert has been among the best passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 286.0 yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.41 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.70 Units / 47% ROI)

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 69% ROI)

  • Austin Ekeler has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)