Jets vs Dolphins Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 17th, 2023

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In a highly anticipated AFC East matchup, the New York Jets will face off against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. This divisional clash adds extra significance to the game, as both teams are motivated to secure a crucial win.

The game is scheduled to kick off on Sunday at 1:00 PM ET. Notably, the Dolphins will have one less day of rest than the Jets, which could affect their preparation and recovery for the game.

The Jets have had a challenging season and struggled to meet their preseason expectations. Currently, they hold a 5-8 record. On the other hand, the Dolphins have exceeded their preseason expectations with an impressive 9-4 record.

When playing at home, the Dolphins have been strong recently, winning four out of their last five home games. In contrast, the Jets have struggled, losing four out of their last five games overall.

In their previous meeting this season, the Dolphins claimed a convincing victory over the Jets with a dominant 34-13 scoreline. This rematch holds additional significance as the Jets seek redemption.

The oddsmakers favor the Dolphins as they enter the game as a big favorite. The odds suggest a 75% chance of a Dolphins victory, while the Jets have a 25% chance of pulling off an upset.

The point spread initially opened with the Dolphins favored by 12 points. However, it has since moved to Dolphins -7, a significant shift of 5 points. Such a drastic line movement indicates sharp bettors backing the Jets and creates liability for the sportsbooks, who are likely hoping for the Dolphins to cover the spread.

As fans and bettors eagerly await this divisional showdown, the Jets aim to defy expectations and upset the Dolphins once again, while the Dolphins seek to solidify their strong season with another victory.

Jets Insights

While Breece Hall has been responsible for 15.2% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New York's passing offense in this week's game at 21.5%.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The predictive model expects Breece Hall to total 0.14 receiving TDs in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Dolphins Insights

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Miami Dolphins are projected by the projections to call only 64.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest among all teams this week.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (289.0) this year than he did last year (253.0).
This year, the weak New York Jets defense has been gouged for the 6th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing WRs: a monstrous 4.78 YAC.

Betting Trends

The Miami Dolphins have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.65 Units / 7% ROI)
The New York Jets have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.30 Units / 27% ROI)