Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022


Davis Mills and the Houston Texans faceoff against Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. The Bears enter the game as a favorite (-150) as the home team. Chicago is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 39.0.

Houston's biggest weakness has been their offense, checking in at #32 in the league with a mere 274 yards per game. A big part of their failure has been the quality (or lack thereof) of their rushing attack, which has been #1-worst in football with just 3.1 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and the worst running back can find success if he's given open space. It should come as no surprise then that Houston's o-line ranks #1-worst in this regard. In failing to successfully establish the run, Houston has also had trouble moving the ball through the air, averaging a paltry 6.32 yards per target, which ranks them #28 in football. In terms of their defense, the Texans have ranked #31 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 247 yards per game through the air against them (#24 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #27 with 4.78 yards per carry. Houston has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 5.25 yards per target (#3-best). Houston has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.33 yards per target (#2-worst).

Chicago's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #28 in football with a low 289 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #31 in the league with just 202 yards per game. When it comes to their defense, the Bears check in at #10 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 195 yards per game against Chicago this year (#3 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.75 yards per ground attempt. This Bears defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 26 yards per game (#2-best in the league). Chicago's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have scorched them for 8.7 yards per target (#9-worst in the league).

Houston Texans Insights

  • The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

  • The Houston Texans defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

  • The Houston Texans pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.80 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the NFL.

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (21.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.5% in games he has played).

  • David Montgomery's receiving efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a measly 5.71 yards-per-target vs a 6.51 mark last season.

  • The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Houston Texans have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 39% ROI)

  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 25% ROI)