Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Matchup Preview - September 11th, 2022


The Minnesota Vikings come in as 1.5 point home underdog as they play the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium Sunday. It was quite the blowout the last time these two teams played. The road Packers won by double digits, defeating the Vikings 37-10 in Week 17 of 2021. They say, good teams win, but great teams cover. The Packers not only won, but covered the -12.5 spread that game. The Game Total for that game was 42.5 and which the Over hit.

Ranking all the way down at #29 in the NFL with a massive 381 yards allowed per game, Minnesota's biggest struggles have been with their defense. What ails them the most? Opposing QBs have been able to do whatever they want to the Vikings pass defense, gaining 253 yards per game, the league's #7-most. Embarrassingly, they've been almost as bad against the run: 4.63 yards per carry for #9-worst in the league. At 2.56 seconds after the snap, #3-slowest in the league, their pass rushers have not been able to apply pressure to the opposing QB with any sort of consistency. The Vikings have struggled the most at limiting opposing wide receivers, who are averaging a whopping 178 yards per game against them (#1-worst). Minnesota's cornerbacks have struggled the most in terms of coverage, ranking just #32 against opposing route-runners. In terms of total offensive yards per game, the Vikings are ranked #14 in the league. Ranked #15 in the league, they've averaged 254 yards through the air. They've carried the ball for 4.34 yards per attempt (#14 in football).

At #29 in the league and 4.82 yards per game, Green Bay's fortunes have been dragged down by their run defense. A potential adjustment they've yet to explore is stacking the box: at #2-least in the league, they only bring up extra personnel on 8.8% of plays. The Packers worst position group against the run by ranking? The defensive ends (7-worst). The Packers are currently ranked #7 in the league in total offensive yards per game. Ranked #7 in football, they've passed for 292 yards per game. They've also added 4.47 yards per carry (#9 in the league).

Green Bay Packers Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Aaron Jones has accrued a colossal 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among running backs.

  • THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to compile 0.19 receiving TDs in this game, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Minnesota Vikings Insights

  • The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

  • The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

  • The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.28 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the league.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Vikings have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)

  • The Green Bay Packers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.15 Units / 12% ROI)

  • Josiah Deguara has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)