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Chicago Bears vs New York Giants Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022

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Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Daniel Jones and the New York Giants. The Giants enter the game as a favorite (-150) as the home team. New York is currently favored by -3.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 39.0.

New York's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 277 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #30 in the league with just 202 yards per game. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led New York managing just 3.85 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. Partially to blame is New York's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #32 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Giants check in at #22 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 236 yards per game against New York this year (#18 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #26 against them with 4.77 yards per ground attempt. This Giants defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, keeping them in check at just 6.94 yards per target (#8-best in the league). New York's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing running backs, who have scorched them for 6.86 yards per target (#6-worst in the league).

Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #28 in the league with a mere 289 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 197 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #10 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 198 yards per game through the air against them (#3 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 with 4.76 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing running backs, holding them to 27 yards per game (#2-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 8.79 yards per target (#9-worst).

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The weather forecast calls for light rain in this game... which typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

  • Justin Fields's throwing efficiency has worsened this year, averaging just 6.06 yards-per-target compared to a 7.17 mark last year.

  • The Chicago Bears pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.10 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in football.

New York Giants Insights

  • The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

  • Saquon Barkley has accrued a whopping 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

  • The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Giants have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI)

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)

  • Kenny Golladay has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 50% ROI)

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