Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup Preview - November 20th, 2022

Editor

Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears faceoff against Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons enter the game as a favorite (-135) as the home team. Atlanta is currently favored by -2.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 48.5.

Atlanta's primary disadvantage has been their defense, which has allowed a monstrous 418 yards per game this year, sliding them into the #2 spot among the league's worst. They've struggled in large part because they've been unable to keep opposing offenses from moving the chains via their pass attack. Opposing QBs have thrown for the #2-most yards per game (292) against the Falcons. Opposing wide receivers have given the Falcons the most trouble, posting 200 yards per game against this defense (#2-worst in football). Atlanta's linebackers are perhaps most responsible for their paltry pass rush this year, given that they grade out as the #5-worst unit in the NFL. This presents a decided disadvantage for Atlanta given that the Bears air attack has been so good this year, passing their way to 7.24 yards per target (#13-best in the league). When it comes to their offense, the Falcons check in at #26 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 173 yards per game (#30 in football). Their run game has ranked #5 with 4.85 yards per attempt on the ground.

Chicago's biggest weakness has been their offense, ranking #32 in the league with a mere 259 yards per game. They've failed so much on offense in large part because of their passing attack, which checks in at #1-worst in football with 151 yards per game. In terms of their defense, the Bears have ranked #16 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 212 yards per game through the air against them (#7 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #25 with 4.99 yards per carry. Chicago has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 35 yards per game (#3-best). Chicago has been least effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, giving up 9.86 yards per target (#1-worst).

Chicago Bears Insights

  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and The Sharp Model projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

  • David Montgomery's receiving effectiveness has improved this year, averaging 8.60 yards-per-target compared to just 6.50 figure last year.

  • The Sharp Model projects Justin Fields to rush for 0.45 TDs in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.

Atlanta Falcons Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (21.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).

  • Kyle Pitts has totaled significantly more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (70.0 per game).

  • The Chicago Bears pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 33% ROI)

  • The Chicago Bears have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)

  • Marcus Mariota has hit the Completions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)