Broncos vs Chargers Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - December 10th, 2023

a year ago

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In a divisional showdown, the Denver Broncos (6-6) will take on the Los Angeles Chargers (5-7) at SoFi Stadium on Sunday afternoon. This matchup carries extra significance as both teams will be motivated to secure a victory and gain an edge in their rivalry.

The Broncos enter the game with a 6-6 record, marking an average season for them. However, they have shown improvement in recent weeks, winning four out of their last five games. In their previous outing, the Broncos fell short against the Houston Texans, losing by a score of 22-17.

On the other hand, the Chargers have struggled this season, currently holding a 5-7 record. They have lost three out of their last four games and are aiming to turn their season around. In their most recent game, the Chargers managed to secure a 6-0 victory over the New England Patriots.

The last time these two teams faced each other was in Week 18 of 2022, where the Broncos pulled off an upset on the road, defeating the Chargers with a final score of 31-28. This history adds an extra layer of intrigue to their upcoming matchup.

In terms of betting odds, the Chargers are considered slight favorites at home, with a spread of -2.5. The moneyline for the Chargers is set at -150, indicating a higher probability of winning. On the other hand, the Broncos are slight underdogs, with a moneyline of +130.

Based on the odds, the Broncos have an implied win probability of 42%, while the Chargers have an implied win probability of 58%. These numbers reflect the expectations of the betting market and provide insight into the perceived strength of each team.

As kickoff approaches at 4:25 PM ET, both teams will be looking to secure a crucial victory in this divisional clash. With the Broncos aiming to continue their recent success and the Chargers seeking redemption, this game promises to be an exciting battle between two divisional foes.

Broncos Insights

The model projects the Broncos offensive gameplan to tilt 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
After totaling 100.0 air yards per game last season, Courtland Sutton has been a disappointment this season, currently pacing 80.0 per game.
The Broncos have ranked among the worst passing teams in the NFL this year (#24 overall), tallying a terrible 207.0 adjusted yards per game through the air.

Chargers Insights

Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to be much more involved in his offense's running game near the end zone in this game (18.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best safety corps in football this year in regard to pass rush.
The model projects Keenan Allen to accumulate 0.63 receiving TDs in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile amongamong wide receivers.