Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers Matchup Preview - October 2nd, 2022


Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals faceoff against Baker Mayfield and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers enter the game as a slight favorite (-115) as the home team. Carolina is currently favored by -1.0 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 44.0.

Carolina's primary disadvantage this season has been their offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 277 yards per game. They've been so ineffective on offense in large part because of their aerial attack, clocking in at #31 in the league with just 200 yards per game. One consequence of this ineffectiveness has been the ability for opposing defenses to stack the box against them to stop the run, bringing up at least one extra defender 19.7% of the time. And if the opposing defense doesn't need to go all out to stop the passing game, they can focus more on stopping the run, which has led Carolina managing just 3.87 yards per carry -- bottom 10 in the league. Partially to blame is Carolina's offensive line, which has given the quarterback very little protection, ranking just #31 in the NFL. When it comes to their defense, the Panthers check in at #3 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 194 yards per game against Carolina this year (#2 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #11 against them with 4.27 yards per ground attempt. This Panthers defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 21 yards per game (#1-best in the league). Carolina's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing wide receivers, who have caught 70.9% of their passes (#2-highest in the league).

Arizona's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #9 in the league with 4.43 yards per carry. This is all the more impressive because they've faced a stacked box the #2-most of any team in the league at 9.5%. Even with an extra tackler near the line of scrimmage, the Cardinals have still thrived on the ground. In terms of their defense, the Cardinals have ranked #12 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 220 yards per game through the air against them (#9 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #21 with 4.66 yards per carry. Arizona has been most effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 41 yards per game (#9-best). Arizona has been least effective in shutting down opposing tight ends, giving up 10.32 yards per target (#2-worst).

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week.

  • Marquise Brown has put up a whopping 106.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wide receivers.

  • The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Carolina Panthers Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Baker Mayfield to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (15.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.7% in games he has played).

  • The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best DT corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.

  • The Sharp Model projects Christian McCaffrey to accrue 0.26 receiving touchdowns in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Betting Trends

  • The Carolina Panthers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)

  • The Arizona Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)

  • Sam Darnold has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 6 games (+6.30 Units / 70% ROI)