Arizona Cardinals @ Las Vegas Raiders Matchup Preview - September 18th, 2022

Editor

Sunday the Arizona Cardinals (0-1) will battle the Las Vegas Raiders (0-1). Oddsmakers peg the Raiders as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 67%, leaving the Cardinals with a 33% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Raiders -5.5 with a Game Total of 51.5.

Las Vegas's primary advantage has been their pass defense, which has allowed a scant 218 yards per game through the air -- #8-best in the NFL. A big factor in their success has been the ability to shed blocks and get to the quarterback quickly; they've averaged just 2.44 seconds after the snap before getting pressure on the QB -- #10-quickest in the league. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has had the most success in covering opposing tight ends, holding them to a 64.3% completion rate (#3-stingiest in football). Las Vegas's best coverage unit has been their safeties, which grade out as the #9 unit in the NFL in this regard. Las Vegas's pass rush has been led by their linebackers who, ranking as the #3 unit in the NFL, have given opposing quarterbacks fits. When it comes to their offense, the Raiders check in at #14 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 266 yards per game (#11 in football). Their run game has ranked #9 with 4.42 yards per attempt on the ground.

Arizona's biggest strength has been their pass defense, which ranks #8 in the league while allowing just 218 yards per game this season. They've made it a habit of getting to the quarterback quickly, averaging just 2.44 seconds after the snap before applying pressure -- #10-quickest in the league. The Cardinals have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to a 64.3% completion rate (#3-lowest). Arizona's best position group in coverage has been their safeties, which rank #9 in the league in locking down route-runners. Arizona's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their linebackers, which check in as the #3-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Cardinals have ranked #14 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 266 yards per game (#11 in football). On the ground they've ranked #9 with 4.42 yards per carry.

Arizona Cardinals Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects Kyler Murray to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (22.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.3% in games he has played).

  • The Arizona Cardinals linebackers project as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their pass rush.

  • THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to compile 0.33 receiving TDs in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.

Las Vegas Raiders Insights

  • THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

  • Derek Carr's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 59.9%.

  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.18 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.

Betting Trends

  • The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 45% ROI)

  • Kyler Murray has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)