NBA Bet of the Day | January 30, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 140-93-3, +35.72u
RECAP: Yesterday we didn’t have time to publish a proper NBA of the Day, and it showed - we went 2-2 thanks to some absolutely bonkers picks. The Cleveland total we hammered the under, and it finished under by a half of a point. The Magic also were in a doozy, with them pulling out the cover in the end. We lost on a total and a favorite as well, to bring our earnings to -.12u on the day. Happens. On to today!

January 30, 2024

Did everyone forget that the Celtics are a juggernaut, or are we all falling biased to the recent happenings in like, the past two games? The C’s are taking on the thrifty Indiana Pacers at home today in what should be a pretty solid game, but the road has been a place of misery at some points for the Pacers. What are we seeing tonight? Let’s dive in. 

The Indiana Pacers are making headway this season with their addition of Pascal Siakam and the rise of Tyrese Haliburton, but they still have yet to show that they can be a dominant team on the road. In fact, they’re 11-12 on the road this season, and generally lose by an average of six points when they’re an away underdog. The Celtics, meanwhile, are the most dominant home team in the league, going 21-2 so far this season on their home court. Generally at home they win by a whopping thirteen points on average, and they’re 13-10 ATS this season on their home court. This is the first time that Indiana is coming to Boston this season, with each team winning one and covering one in their games in Indiana. 

Pacers are the number-one scoring offense on the road this season, but they haven’t been able to face this home Celtics defense yet. The C’s allow only 108 points per game and have the best fourth-quarter defense in the league. The Celtics are second-best at home at limiting assists, which is Indiana’s strongest suit, and this seems like a case where big brother can bully the little brother a bit. 

As well, we’re seeing Sharp Money come in on the Celtics all day, and the Money Handles tool matches up perfectly with what we’re seeing on the report. The Celtics own 39% of the betting handle and 74% of the money, with line movement happening all day and night to push this line from -5.5 to -7. That’s crazy movement, and that’s why we’re backing the Celtics to cover today. 

I love taking favorites in the morning, and the Celtics fit the bill today against a Pacers team that is still trying to figure everything out. Boston by seven feels like a great pick, and our AI and Money Handles match nearly to a T.

PICK:  Boston Celtics -7

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