Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


Today's contest between the Braves and the Nationals pits THE BAT's 263rd ranked SP (Paolo Espino) against the 164th ranked SP (Bryce Elder). The rundown on Espino tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 48.3% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (26.9%). Elder is a sinker guy (34.8%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Espino deserves something like a 4.49 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.24. On that front, Elder's ERA sits at 3.67 and his FIP at 4.33.

Washington Nationals Insights

  • The Sharp Model X expects Paolo Espino to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 82 pitches.

  • Extreme groundball hitters like Luis Garcia tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Elder.

  • The Washington Nationals projected lineup today (.287 projected wOBA according to The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .303 wOBA this year.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bryce Elder must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot this year: 65% of the time, grading out in the 93rd percentile.

  • Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 76 games at home (+16.37 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 away games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 42 away games (+16.15 Units / 28% ROI)