Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022


Patrick Corbin (213th ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Nationals as they battle the Braves and Charlie Morton (40th ranked SP) at Truist Park. The quick scouting report on Corbin: his main fastball is a sinker, which he uses 42.5% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (29.8%). Meanwhile, Morton primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (33.6%) and his most-used secondary offering is his curveball (37.7%). THE BAT X projects Corbin for 3.3 earned runs and 4.7 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Morton is forecasted for 2.4 earned runs and 7.2 strikeouts.

Washington Nationals Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Patrick Corbin has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.6% less often this season (38%) than he did last year (43.6%).

  • Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

  • The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the worst in the game, according to THE BAT.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • The Atlanta Braves infield defense grades out as the 3rd-worst of the day.

  • The Washington Nationals don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Michael Harris II is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game.

  • William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 65 games at home (+14.27 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+7.00 Units / 44% ROI)

  • Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)