Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Toronto's third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Randy Arozarena and the Rays. This season Vladimir Guerrero Jr is batting .276 with 30 home runs, 85 runs, 89 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 8th in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .241 Avg, .279 wOBA and .05 HRs. On the Rays side, Randy Arozarena has shined this year (.270 Avg, 20 HRs, 69 Rs, 87 RBIs, & 32 SBs). He's projected to bat 3rd and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .328 wOBA, and .14 HRs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ross Stripling has utilized his secondary pitches 10.3% more often this season (58.3%) than he did last year (48%).

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 95-mph average last year has decreased to 92.7-mph.

• The Toronto Blue Jays projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best of the day.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane McClanahan's 96.1 mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 96th percentile among starting pitchers.

• Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year, notching a .245 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .038 discrepancy.

• Tampa Bay's 88.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in the game: #10 overall.

Betting Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games at home (+13.65 Units / 14% ROI)

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.90 Units / 17% ROI)

• David Peralta has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+13.00 Units / 34% ROI)