Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Matchup Preview - September 29th, 2022

Thursday evening the Texas Rangers battle against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. The Rangers offense will be led by Marcus Semien, who ranks as the #13th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Marcus Semien's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .344 wOBA, .274 AVG, and .21 HRs. On the other side, Julio Rodriguez (The Sharp Model X's #43rd hitter in MLB) will bolster the Mariners lineup. He projects for a .333 wOBA, .236 AVG, and .11 HRs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Jon Gray in this matchup.

• Kole Calhoun has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Marco Gonzales is a pitch-to-contact type (22nd percentile K%) — great news for Calhoun.

• The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in the league, according to The Sharp Model.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Marco Gonzales's 87.4 mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 2nd percentile among SPs.

• J.P. Crawford has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 85.3-mph average to last year's 87.3-mph figure.

• Carlos Santana has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.2% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.15 Units / 8% ROI)

• Marco Gonzales has hit the Earned Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)