Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


Today's contest between the Astros and the Rays pits The Sharp Model's 50th ranked SP (Drew Rasmussen) against the 17th ranked SP (Framber Valdez). The rundown on Rasmussen tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 36.0% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a cut-fastball (33.3%). Valdez is a sinker guy (48.2%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Rasmussen deserves something like a 3.22 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.85. On that front, Valdez's ERA sits at 2.69 and his FIP at 3.12.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Drew Rasmussen has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 9.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jonathan Aranda can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • Tampa Bay's 88.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in Major League Baseball: #10 overall.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Framber Valdez has added a cutter to his arsenal this season and has mixed it in 10.1% of the time.

  • Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).

  • Chas McCormick has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and will be challenged by baseball's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 39 games (+2.10 Units / 5% ROI)

  • David Peralta has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.60 Units / 94% ROI)