San Diego Padres @ Washington Nationals Matchup Preview - August 14th, 2022

Today's contest between the Nationals and the Padres pits THE BAT's 45th ranked SP (Blake Snell) against the 292nd ranked SP (Paolo Espino). The rundown on Snell tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 53.6% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (23.7%). Espino is a four-seam guy (47.8%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Snell deserves something like a 3.11 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 3.96. On that front, Espino's ERA sits at 4.04 and his FIP at 4.93.

San Diego Padres Insights

• The Washington Nationals have 9 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Blake Snell today.

• The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nomar Mazara can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• The San Diego Padres projected offense grades out as the 2nd-best of all teams on the slate.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Paolo Espino's 87.9 mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 3rd percentile among SPs.

• Nelson Cruz has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 11.50 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 21.20 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Washington Nationals bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the majors, according to THE BAT.

Betting Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games (+12.35 Units / 14% ROI)

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+8.80 Units / 8% ROI)

• Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+7.20 Units / 144% ROI)