San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Mike Clevinger (107th ranked SP via THE BAT) is projected to take the mound for Padres as they battle the Rockies and Kyle Freeland (123rd ranked SP) at Coors Field. The quick scouting report on Clevinger: his main fastball is a four-seamer, which he uses 36.9% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (21.3%). Meanwhile, Freeland primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (23.1%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (22.5%). The Sharp Model X projects Clevinger for 2.9 earned runs and 4.7 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Freeland is forecasted for 3.0 earned runs and 3.3 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Mike Clevinger’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2390 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2291 rpm).

• Manny Machado has been lucky this year, posting a .376 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .040 discrepancy.

• The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 9th-best in the league, per THE BAT.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland has averaged 17.2 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

• Connor Joe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

Betting Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 37% ROI)

• Kris Bryant has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.20 Units / 31% ROI)