Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


The Pittsburgh Pirates (55-93) will battle the New York Yankees (89-58) on Wednesday night. Oddsmakers peg the Yankees as the huge favorite with an implied win probablity of 72%, leaving the Pirates with a 28% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Pirates have an implied team total of 2.97 compared to 5.03 for the Yankees.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • The Sharp Model X projects Roansy Contreras to throw 82 pitches in this matchup (7th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Jason Delay has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 84.9-mph figure.

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the worst in the majors, via THE BAT.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Luis Severino has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.

  • The Sharp Model X projects Aaron Judge as the 6th-best batter in MLB when estimating his batting average talent.

  • Kyle Higashioka has a high pull rate on his flyballs (38.8% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.90 Units / 42% ROI)

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.05 Units / 14% ROI)

  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)