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Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Matchup Preview - September 29th, 2022

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The Phillies are scheduled to start Ranger Suarez (10-5, 3.38 ERA) against Cubs starting pitcher Javier Assad (1-2, 4.28 ERA) on Thursday. Ranger Suarez recorded the win in his last outing, as the Phillies beat the Braves 1-0. He pitched 6 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Javier Assad took the mound, the Cubs defeated the Pirates 6-5. He finished with 4 IP, 2 K, 3 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 4 hits. Today, Suarez projects for 5.74 innings pitched with 2.3 ER, 5.1 hits, 5.6 strikeouts, and 2.4 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Assad's average outcome to be 4.68 IP, 2.8 ER, 5.0 H, 3.7 strikeouts, and 2 walks.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Matt Vierling has been unlucky with his wOBA this year; his .277 rate is quite a bit lower than his .329 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Chicago Cubs Insights

  • The Sharp Model projects Javier Assad in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

  • Franmil Reyes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in Major League Baseball, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 32 games (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 away games (+8.60 Units / 32% ROI)

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 69 games (+10.85 Units / 14% ROI)

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