Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago Cubs Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Today's contest between the Cubs and the Phillies pits The Sharp Model's 10th ranked SP (Aaron Nola) against the 120th ranked SP (Hayden Wesneski). The rundown on Nola tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 33.3% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (26.5%). Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Nola deserves something like a 2.64 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 3.28. On that front, Wesneski's ERA sits at 2.45 and his FIP at 3.25.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola has gone to his sinker 5.4% more often this year (19.1%) than he did last season (13.7%).

• Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (97% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The 15.4% Barrel% of the Philadelphia Phillies makes them the #9 team in MLB since the start of last season by this stat.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Hayden Wesneski was in good form in his last outing and allowed 2 ER.

• The Philadelphia Phillies don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Alfonso Rivas is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Patrick Wisdom has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 26 games (+0.55 Units / 2% ROI)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)

• Justin Steele has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.75 Units / 37% ROI)