Oakland Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022
Editor
Today's contest between the Angels and the Athletics pits The Sharp Model's 236th ranked SP (Adrian Martinez) against the 143rd ranked SP (Michael Lorenzen). The rundown on Martinez tells us that he leans on his sinker fastball 50.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (30.6%). Lorenzen is a sinker guy (24.8%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Martinez deserves something like a 5.75 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 6.10. On that front, Lorenzen's ERA sits at 4.78 and his FIP at 4.61.
Oakland Athletics Insights
Adrian Martinez has been unlucky this year, compiling a 6.10 ERA despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 4.72 — a 1.38 difference.
Dermis Garcia has been lucky with his wOBA this year; his .316 mark is quite a bit higher than his .223 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Vimael Machin has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will be challenged by the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
Michael Lorenzen’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2323 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2250 rpm).
Max Stassi's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last season to this one, going from 44.5% to 34.3%.
The Los Angeles Angels have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to The Sharp Model X, and are likely to positively regress in the future
Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.60 Units / 28% ROI)
The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 59 away games (+4.75 Units / 7% ROI)
Taylor Ward has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+8.55 Units / 29% ROI)
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