New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - September 30th, 2022


Today's contest between the Braves and the Mets pits The Sharp Model's 1st ranked SP (Jacob deGrom) against the 20th ranked SP (Max Fried). The rundown on deGrom tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 46.5% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (39.4%). Fried is a four-seam guy (32.7%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that deGrom deserves something like a 1.74 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.93. On that front, Fried's ERA sits at 2.50 and his FIP at 2.73.

New York Mets Insights

  • Jacob deGrom has averaged 17.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

  • Extreme groundball batters like Luis Guillorme tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

  • Projected catcher Tomas Nido grades out as an elite pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • Max Fried has relied on his four-seamer 5.5% less often this season (32.7%) than he did last year (38.2%).

  • Robbie Grossman has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in MLB, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 56 games at home (+18.40 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+9.55 Units / 19% ROI)