New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022


Today's contest between the Braves and the Mets pits THE BAT's 125th ranked SP (Taijuan Walker) against the 34th ranked SP (Charlie Morton). The rundown on Walker tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 30.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (27.9%). Morton is a four-seam guy (34.4%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Walker deserves something like a 3.62 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 3.43. On that front, Morton's ERA sits at 4.26 and his FIP at 4.15.

New York Mets Insights

  • Taijuan Walker has averaged 17.9 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

  • Michael Perez has been lucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 22.40 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 15.40 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher Michael Perez grades out as a weak pitch framer, per THE BAT projection system.

Atlanta Braves Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Charlie Morton has gone to his secondary offerings 5.1% more often this year (55.6%) than he did last season (50.5%).

  • Marcell Ozuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

  • The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in the league, according to THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 80 games (+16.95 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)