MLB Bet of the Day | July 27, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 171-169-7, -4.23u
RECAP: We’ve once again hit rock bottom, with us going 1-5 on our plays yesterday and losing just under four units of profit. It’s obvious that we’re still trying to find out footing this season and it just isn’t coming. We’re going to continue to pump out plays for you, but things have just gone from bad to worse this MLB season, and I can’t find a way to get out of the funk! On to today! 

July 27th, 2024

When you’re at the end of the rope, and there’s nothing worse that can happen, you do crazy things. And today, I’m finding significant value in a team that has lost six straight games. 

The Atlanta Braves have been passed by the New York Mets in the standings, and it’s because they’ve been absolutely horrid over their last stretch of games; but it has to end somehow, and it’ll be on the back of the youngster Spencer Schwellenbach. 

Our Sharp App Money Handles tool loves Atlanta today, with 22% of the bets placed, but a whopping 64% of the money. That makes for a difference of 42%, and that means potential sharp money coming in on this game. 

Tylor Megill is on the mound for the Mets today, and he’s a pitcher that has pitched pretty well since returning from injury… but in his career, has been absolutely slaughtered by the Braves. This Braves lineup that’ll be on the field today has hit .308 against him in his career and has an xwOBA of .342, which means that they are EXPECTED to get on base against him 34% of the time. That’s essentially a batter per inning getting on base automatically – not to mention the eleven earned runs over his last three starts against this team. 

While this team hasn’t been hitting the ball well whatsoever, there are some small sparks in that they’ve kept games relatively close over this stretch of losing. They’re on the cusp of a lot of these games, and my model gives Atlanta a slight edge. But Schwellenbach is what pushes this over the edge for me.

Schwellenbach has been extremely underrated as of late; he gets a ton of swings and misses and doesn’t put free batters on base. Against an impatient team like the Mets, this can be a really tough matchup for them. Especially in the month of July, Spencer is allowing a WHIP of .095, among the best in the major leagues. 

While he’s been plagued by road games before, he hasn’t faltered during night games this season, and his expected ERA this season is nearly one point lower than his actual ERA. He’s finally figuring out his stuff, and he should be able to shut down this Mets lineup.

PICK: Atlanta Braves ML 

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!