MLB Bet of the Day | August 9, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a amoneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 190-188-8, -4.16u
RECAP: Yesterday was the most devastating MLB of the Day loss of the season, with only four runs heading into the ninth inning, and the under looking absolutely locked in… until there were TEN RUNS scored in the ninth and tenth innings of the game. It was absolutely abysmal, and it led to quite a bit of real tears. We lost .96 units on the day. Let’s get hot heading into the weekend. 

August 9th, 2024

Today we’re backing the hottest offense on the planet in their matchup against the Marlins. The Padres have won 7 of their last ten games against the fish, and the Padres are riding a five game winning streak coming into this matchup against Edward Cabrera, who has looked good Post-All-Star-Break… but that regression is coming.

Cabrera has only given up six runs over his twenty innings in three starts since the ASG, and most bettors would think that he’s hot as heck during that stretch… but there’s been one subtle factor that has stayed the same throughout his entire season, and it’s a high WHIP. Despite him pitching well, he’s developed a 1.35 WHIP over that stretch – and a good offense like the Padres are going to absolutely cash in on those opportunities. 

The Padres offense, led by Jurickson Profar and company, are getting on base 35% of their at-bats right now, and are pushing across nearly seven runs per game over their last ten games. They’re the hottest team in the league at the moment, and are brought down by their projected starter in Martin Perez. 

This is a fairly even matchup when it comes to the pitching aspect of the game if you look at the standard statistics in this matchup. But dig a little deeper, and Perez has absolutely dominated the Marlins in his career. He’s been consistently allowing 1-2 runs per game against them and gave up just one earned run in his matchup against them earlier this year. Perez gave up three hits total last time out, and he could turn a new leaf with this team that desperately needs him to be locked in during this series. 

Plus, this Marlins offense doesn’t scare anyone. They’ve gotten on base just 28% of the time at home this season, and their bullpen is absolutely gushed from last night’s game, where they used nearly every arm they’ve got. If both of these starters struggle, it’s going to be up to the bullpens to keep the opposing offense at bay - and trust me, you do not want to back this Miami bullpen right now. 

Let’s take the Padres in what may feel like a square pick, but is a pick that our Sharp AI loves. 

PICK: San Diego Padres ML 

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