MLB Bet of the Day | August 8, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a amoneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 189-186-8, -3.20u
RECAP: We go a measly 1-2 on the day yesterday as our MLB of the Day didn’t hit; Taj Bradley just didn’t look like his normal self today and the Cardinals capitalized on it. Our one winner was the total in the first Yanks/Angels game, where we sweat out an under as it cashed. The Rangers didn’t show up either, leading us to a small loss on the day. August has still been green, so let’s see what we can build today in a smaller slate. 

August 8th, 2024

Today we’re tackling a play that has some major Sharp value in the game between the Giants and the Nationals. It’s game four, which means that these two teams are already ready to move on from this series… and now add in an early, early morning game, and we’ve got quite the recipe for an under. 

Plus, we’ve got a couple different things on our side. We have a Sharp at the book also taking this bet, which is generally profitable; as well, Anthony P’s betting model in the MLB has some value on this under as well at the mark that we’re getting it at. 

But all in all, we’ve got DJ Herz against Kyle Harrison today in a matchup between two pitchers who have thrived in spots, and been very inconsistent in spots. We’ve also got an umpire who is 3-1 in his last four outings on the under, which means that the blues may be on our side as well.

Herz has been up and down for the Nats this season, but he’s got a ripe opportunity at home to build on what he’s been trending towards, which is a really high strikeout rate and an exceptional xBA, hovering around .211 on the season. His stuff is absolutely nasty. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 4 runs over his last fifteen innings pitched. And I like what I see with the bullpen as well, with guys like Jacob Barnes and Kyle Finnegan ready to rock and roll today. 

The Giants also have a very interesting quirk about them: when they’re the favorite (like they are in this game), the under tends to hit right around 60% of the time. We’ve got a pretty big sample size as well. 

They’re pitching Kyle Harrison and their bullpen has actually been pretty good over the last week or so, which will hopefully continue. Harrison had a blow-up in his last start of the season, but he’s been a bounce-back pitcher this season; he thrives on getting back out there and shoving. And against this Washington offense, Harrison should be able to find a groove. 

Let’s take the under in this early morning matchup and hope that these two starters can live up to their potential. 

PICK: San Francisco / Washington under 9

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