MLB Bet of the Day | August 7, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a amoneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 188-184-8, -2.16u
RECAP: The MLB of the Day loser train came to an end yesterday as the Reds beat down the Marlins on the back of a great game by Nick Lodolo, and a stinker by Max Meyer, which we had speculated was due for regression. All in all we go 2-2 yesterday for a loss of .11u. I’m already in the process of finding value this morning, let’s get after it!

August 7th, 2024

We’re going with an underdog today in a game between two teams that are middle-of-the-pack in the MLB, and is also an interleague matchup that has two pitchers who, on paper, have been really underrated this season. 

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the road and throwing Taj Bradley, the fireballer who has been absolutely excellent over the past month or so. In his last month, he’s allowing a WHIP of .81 and has won half of the games he’s started on the road this season, which is much more difficult than it sounds! He’s made it through five innings in fourteen of the fifteen games he’s started this season, and he’s an innings-eater as of late, going at least six in four out of his last five games. He’s just on an absolute tear right now, and if we’re getting this Rays team at plus-money here, it’s a must-slam spot. 

On the other side is Eric Fedde, who I have really liked this season… until he came to St. Louis, where he had struggled in his first outing. Fedde has been regressing as the season has gone on, and in fact, his xERA is over .40 points higher than his actual ERA, suggesting that he’s on track to regress in this second half of the season. He gave up six runs his last time out, and while many would expect him to go back to his old ways, I think that this is a situation that could end up costing the Cards down the stretch. 

Over their last ten games, these two offenses are nearly identical. They both score about four runs per game, and are hitting around the same… but the biggest difference is the chances that are created by Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is getting on base a full forty points higher than the Cardinals, who have struggled to get on base more than 30% of the time over that stretch. Sharp AI sees this too, giving the Rays a 63% projected win percentage in this game. We’ve got to grab that, especially at plus-money.

Let’s take this offense against the Cardinals lack of pitching in today’s game, despite them dropping the first game of the series yesterday. This season, the Rays have bounced back in game two 60% of the time – let’s take them at plus-money to even the series today. 

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays ML

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