MLB Bet of the Day | August 5, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a amoneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 184-181-8, -2.76u
RECAP: The past few days have been filled with weddings and a whole lot of fun times on my part, and we’ve stayed winning despite missing yesterday’s freebie. We’ve gone 3-1 over that stretch and are climbing back in the MLB. We already have a PRO Team Total Parlay in our Sharp App Discord channel as well this morning, which is linked below! 

August 5th, 2024

Houston is looking to bounce back and get back in the driver’s seat of the AL West after dropping their last two games against the Tampa Bay Rays, and they’re sending SP Hunter Brown to take on SP Andrew Heaney in Texas in a must-win divisional matchup here in the latter part of our season.

Brown struggled in the beginning of the season, but he’s come around in a big way over the last two months, molding into one of the most consistent pitchers on the planet right now. Over the past two months of work, he’s allowed just 18 runs over his last 60+ innings and is holding batters to a WHIP right around 1.20, but has seen some minor struggles recently, capped off by a four-run outing against the Pirates his last time out. That being said, Hunter Brown pitched really well against the Rangers earlier this season and is looking to build on that today.

Plus, all of our Sharp App signs point to Houston today as well. Texas is on the Fade section of the Sharp Report, and our Sharp AI projects a 60% chance for the Astros to take game one of this series. 

I don’t like to just look at previous outings and say “he’s going to do poorly again”, but the fact of the matter is that Andrew Heaney has allowed 10 runs over his last nine innings pitched, and hasn’t beaten Houston over his last three starts against them. They’re kind of his kryptonite, allowing an average of .293 over the 200+ plate appearances against him in his career. He struggles with velocity and he’s given up quite a lot of hard hit balls this season, and is allowing a WHIP over 1.30 in his last few starts. 

Finally, these offenses are as comparable as they come, over their last ten games averaging just about the same runs per game, on base percentage, and hits throughout those games. The deciding factor comes in when we look at these specific pitchers; the Rangers are getting on base just 26% of the time against righties over their last ten games, while the Astros are hitting much better, around a batting average of .250. While that’s not the best ever, it’s certainly better than the product that the Rangers are putting on the field against right-handed pitching. 

Let’s follow the Sharp Report and take the Astros today on the moneyline, even as the away team in this divisional matchup. 

PICK: Houston Astros ML

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