MLB Bet of the Day | August 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 181-180-8, -4.44u
RECAP: Yesterday’s freebie was over before it started, with Luis Ortiz making me look like quite the idiot backing the Pittsburgh pitcher in yesterday’s contest. He couldn’t keep it together, and we go 2-2 on the day yesterday for the most minute loss on the day. Today we’ve got another full slate, let’s dive in and get out of this hole. 

August 3rd, 2024

Today we’re attacking a game that’s not for quite a few hours, but I wanted to grab the line before it moved way in the direction that would make it unplayable, which I believe will happen. We have to get here before most of the squares do.

The Mets are in LA to take on the Angels and they had a massive win yesterday against Tyler Anderson and the rest of this Angels lineup, which is struggling a little over their last ten games, and have had the benefit of playing in good ballparks where the ball has been carrying really well. Today, we have David Peterson and Jose Soriano on the mound for the contest. 

Peterson is one of those guys whose advanced stats look much worse than how he’s pitching; in fact, his expected ERA is one of the worst in the league at the SP position, which may lead bettors to shy away from his pitching selection. But if we look at the data from the season, we see that he’s been really good on the road this year, and the Angels have struggled to score runs effectively in their own ballpark. They’re getting on base less than 30% of the time and David Peterson has yet to lose on the road this season. That’s a stat worth following.
Plus, the Sharp App AI gives the Mets a 66% chance of winning, and we’ve seen a small uptick in the juice on the Mets this morning, with the Angels’ odds going from +109 to +110. 

Jose Soriano has been good in spurts, and there could be the argument that he is the better pitcher here today, but what I love are the bats on the side of the away team in game two. The Mets are a really good game two team, going 14-5 this season on the moneyline when they win game one; the Angels lose game two 66% of the time this season when they lost game one, putting themselves in a hole for the second game of the series. 

Polar Pete’s bat has been hot, and Lindor and company should be able to crack this Mets pitching staff today. Let’s take the away team.

PICK: New York Mets ML

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