MLB Bet of the Day | August 2, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 179-178-8, -4.23u
RECAP: We enter the second-to-last month of the MLB regular season still in the red, for the season, but I have a good feeling about this month being in the green. It started off yesterday with a push in the game between the Rockies and the Angels, which we absolutely had to sweat out. On to today! 

August 2nd, 2024

This series is one of those series’ that’s super odd, in that these two teams literally played last weekend against each other, and now they’re playing each other once again this weekend but in Pittsburgh. Anyways, we don’t care who wins today – we’re riding with the total in this matchup between the Pirates and Dbacks. 

Sharp Projections show that this play should be sitting right at 8.5, which is the number that we're taking it at. 

The away team is sending out Brandon Pfaadt, who is a pitcher who has emerged in a big way this season to fill some of the holes in the Arizona rotation. He’s been masterful this season, limiting his walks and his xERA, and in July especially, has been great; he’s held batters to a WHIP of .88. Less than one batter is getting on base in each of his last four starts. 

Luis Ortiz is on the mound for Pittsburgh, and he’s been really good as well, being middle-of-the-road in most advanced pitching categories. In July he’s been masterful as well, allowing a WHIP of .97 this month and has really high strikeout numbers against the Snakes’ best bats. Ortiz held Arizona to just three runs this past weekend when he last faced off against them, and I usually give the benefit to the pitcher in these situations. 

Plus, Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t been great over the last ten games, getting on base less than 30% of the time and offering not much better numbers on a season-to-date level, just clicking up their on-base percentage by a couple of points. Arizona’s offense, however, as been pretty darn good recently and has scored quite a few runs - but regression for this offense is bound to happen, especially as they’re performing well above their expected runs per game over the past stretch. Everything comes back down to earth, and it could start today in Pitt.

Let’s take the under between these two rested bullpens, and rely on these starters who have been consistently good this season. 

PICK: Arizona / Pittsburgh under 8.5

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