MLB Bet of the Day | August 19, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 205-199-8, -1.44u
RECAP: This MLB season has been one big oof throughout the entire season, as we go back and forth between positive and negative. This month has been especially good, as we’ve been able to climb out of a deep hole, but hopefully we can find some consistency starting with today’s play. 

August 19th, 2024

We’re taking an underdog today that has fade opportunities in two sections of the Sharp Report, so it’s a must-bet with the plus-money attached. 

The Houston Astros are welcoming the Boston Red Sox into Houston to battle in the first game of their series, which sees Kikuchi taking on Houck in what is promised to be a decent little pitching battle. Except there’s one team that clearly needs to be faded today, and it’s the home team.

The Astros are both a Sportsbook Liability and a Square play on the Sharp Report, two sections that are extremely profitable in fading this season. In the MLB specifically, the book liabilities have been must-fades all season long, and that’s the route that we’re choosing again for today. 

Plus, Sharp AI is giving the Red Sox a 56% chance to win, and with odds sitting at +128, it’s important for us to grab this spot here before things move. The Red Sox have the more rested bullpen and teams often come down from the high of beating the White Sox, which just happened all weekend long for the Astros. 

Plus, regression is bound to come here for Tanner Houck, who has been absolutely lights out over his last twelve innings pitched… but he has yet to pick up a win, despite his dominance. Plus, I’m a Kikuchi hater, and regression has to come for him, too; he’s been absolutely lit up by this Boston team in his career, with an expected BA above .320. That’s, uh, not good. All of his advanced metrics point towards him having a blowup here soon, and tonight may just be that night. 

These offenses have been extremely similar over the last ten games, and the Red Sox have had the more consistent offense all season long. We’re going to back them to take the first game of the series against this Astros team.

PICK: Boston Red Sox ML

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