MLB Bet of the Day | August 17, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 203-197-8, -1.35u
RECAP: It’s been more of the same in this MLB season as we drop three units yesterday, going 0-3 in all of our plays. Two of our moneyline bets lost by one run, in both the bottom of the 8th and bottom of the 9th. It’s just been that way in the MLB, and we’re on a bad stretch once again, losing five out of our last six plays. 

August 17th, 2024

I think that this is going to be the Carlos Rodon show today in Detroit, with the Tigers really not being able to hit lefties effectively over their last stretch of games. But, that being said, there’s virtually no value on the Yankees to win today… so we head to the total in this game, and use Sharp AI to make a distinction on where to bet.

Sharp AI gives the Yankees a 74% chance to win today, and it’s on the back of their offense and starter. They also put the line at 8.5, which is below the market value of 9. But while Comerica can be a tough place to hit, that means that we have to look at the pitchers involved. Rodon is starting for the Yankees, and he’s been absolutely dominant over his last five games, averaging almost six innings per game and allowing 1.5 runs per game in that stretch. And now, he gets the benefit of a great stadium to pitch in, and this under has historically hit between these two teams; in fact, the under is a 70% winner over the last ten games. 

Keider Montero is on the mound for the Tigers, and he’s obviously the one that’s scary in this situation. He’s been pretty horrendous this season, and now he faces one of the most elite lineups in the league. But here’s our saving grace: if he can limit the Yankees to four or five runs in the first five innings (a mark that he’s reached in each of his last six starts), then he’ll turn the ball over to an incredibly rested bullpen, with all of their best arms ready to roll. 

Plus, this Detroit offense is just so poor against lefties this season. They’re hitting .230 against lefties and have among the least efficient offense against this-sided pitching, so even if they’re held to two runs or so, we can hope that it’s enough on the back of this Yankees pitching. I don’t foresee the Tigers scoring more than two runs in this game. 

Let’s take the under in this contest that should see some elite pitching out of the Yankees, and be an overall one-sided game. 

PICK: New York / Detroit under 9

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