MLB Bet of the Day | August 15, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 202-192-8, +2.76u
RECAP: We have our first losing day in a week as the streak of nine straight bet winners is snapped. We dropped two games on the total in Baltimore and the LA Dodgers to win yesterday, but we snagged the Blue Jays on the +100 moneyline to lose only a unit of profit on the day. We’ll take it, and today, let’s build on a new winning streak. 

August 15th, 2024

We’re going to the night game tonight as the Minnesota Twins are heading to Texas to take on the Rangers, with two pitchers whose names don’t jump out at you, but are having really, really solid seasons on their rotations. 

Both of these teams have stunk in this situation this season, so we can’t turn there; but where we can turn are the Sharp tools. Our Sharp AI projects a win for Minnesota (hitting at 66%) and our money handles are showing a massive discrepancy (of 37%) between the betting percentage and the money coming in on the game. One of these pitchers is going to break an impressive streak, as Cody Bradford has led the Rangers to a win in each of their last five games under him, and Minnesota have won the last four under Ober. 

Ober has been on the most dominant stretch of his MLB career, going his last 21 innings and only allowing two runs total over that stretch. He dominated this Texas team earlier this season, and has looked incredibly sharp, allowing just a xBA of .218 this season. That’s incredible. 

Bradford has been quietly just as good, allowing four runs over his last fifteen innings. He doesn’t go deep into games, but has been incredible at home this season. The indoors are his friend, and he’s yet to have a blunder there all season. 

The biggest problem is that Texas’ best arms aren’t rested, and Bradford won’t go past the fifth inning. So while Ober is still dealing, Texas is going to have to turn to a Texas bullpen that has an ERA over seven in their last three games, and is allowing nearly two baserunners per inning in that stretch. 

This game is going to be low-scoring in the beginning and middle-innings, and could pick up steam as the game goes on. That means that we’re going to have to rely on these bullpens to take us home, and I trust the arms available in the Minnesota bullpen way more than in Texas. The Twins are among the best teams in the league at winning as the away favorite, and we’re going to back them today.  

PICK: Minnesota Twins ML 

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