MLB Bet of the Day | August 14, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 201-190-8, +3.76u
RECAP: Another great day as we go 3-0 in the MLB. Our MLB of the Day on Monday was no-sweat as the Astros got to Taj Bradley early, and the game was over by the third inning! Our other two plays were major sweats though, with the total in STL going down to the wire, and the Guardians bullpen turning into the worst bullpen in the league in the middle innings. Nevertheless, they all cash the same, and we’re 9-0 in our last nine plays. 

August 14th, 2024

Want to know the best bet in baseball? It’s on the Baltimore Orioles going over the full-game total, as it’s hit 61% of the time this season, and even better when they’re the favorite, hitting nearly 65% of the time. And today, they’re hosting a Washington Nationals team with a pitcher who I love… but will get no love in today’s contest. 

DJ Herz is a player that we’ve hit before and nailed as a pretty solid contributor to this Nats rotation; but today, he faces his worst nightmare in a hot Baltimore team and he’s on the road. On the road this season, he’s produced a WHIP of 1.58 this season and has been absolutely shelled, getting hit for nine runs in twelve innings pitched. He’s often ditched early on the road by the Nationals and headed to their bullpen within the first three innings. In fact, if we broaden the spectrum a little, he’s allowing a WHIP above 1.50 in night games altogether. Yikes! 

Dean Kremer is on the mound for the O’s and while he’s been stable over the past few years, he’s hit a rough patch in the last stretch. He’s allowed nine runs over nine innings in his last two games, and has lost his touch over his last four starts. He’s among the worst in the league in barrel rate and his xERA is so much higher than his actual ERA, so he should be getting shelled. 

Plus, these offenses are in great form. Over their last ten, they’re each putting up more than five runs per game, and getting on base more than 33% of the time per inning. These bullpens have been shaky, and, truthfully, the Orioles have absolutely killed right-handed pitching this season at home. 

The Orioles are on an all-time overs run this season, and today, it should be absolutely no different with these two pitchers on the mound. Sharp AI projects the line to be O/U 9.5, so we’re taking the over at the 9 spot. 

PICK: Washington/Baltimore over 9

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