MLB Bet of the Day | August 12, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 198-190-8, +0.95u
RECAP: And all of a sudden, we’re on the up and up as we go 6-0 this weekend across all of our plays. The Rays skated out of that game with a win (just like we described yesterday) and our three totals (NYY, OAK, HOU) smashed the over as well. We targeted teams with high totals, and it paid off in yesterday’s slugfests. We’ve got a smaller slate today, but good luck! 

August 12th, 2024

I know, I know – literally yesterday, we hammered the Rays against the Orioles and came out on top. It was definitely a game where we felt the right spot, and we hammered it - but today, we’re literally turning our backs on the team that we tailed yesterday, and we’re backing one of the hottest offenses in the league. Oh, and their ace is on the mound. 

Houston is a Sharp play today, with two Sharps hammering the Astros to win this game against the pesky Rays. Framber Valdez is taking on Taj Bradley in a matchup of the aces, and Valdez is looking to build on his near perfect-game last time on the mound. The Astros have won each of the last five times that he’s been on the mound, and he’s been really, really good this season post-ASG, posting a WHIP of .86 and has just been dominant during night games this season. As well, Brandon Lowe, the absolute hottest bat in this Rays lineup, is sitting out today. 

Plus, the Astros are a really good game one team, and the Rays struggle during the first game of the series coming off of a win. In fact, they’ve won just 39% of games in this exact scenario so far this season; the Stros are winners in nearly 60% of this scenario. 

And, our Sharp Projections give Houston a 58% chance to win this game, which aligns right with my metrics. 

Bradley has been great this season, but has given up a run per inning over his last nine innings. He’s lost his groove almost completely, and it’s affecting his advanced metrics; he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball at limiting hard contact recently, and he is struggling to miss barrels among the worst in the league. In his last game, he was allowing nearly three batters per inning to reach base. This offense will tear your head off if that happens again. 

This Rays offense also has been stuck in the mud, scoring three runs per game over their last ten and getting on base right at that 30% mark. Space City has been much better in this last stretch. Back the away team today, and follow the sharp money. 

PICK:  Houston Astros ML

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