MLB Bet of the Day | August 11, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 194-190-8, -2.77u
RECAP: Yesterday’s slate came with two big wins in the MLB streets, as we hit on both the winner in Kansas City and St. Louis and the under in the game between Oakland and Toronto. Our MLB of the Day was never in doubt, as these two pitchers absolutely diced, and the bullpens held strong the entire game. We’ve got a smaller Sunday slate than normal today, but still plenty of games to bet on. Good luck! 

August 11th, 2024

Tampa Bay has been absolutely owned by the Baltimore Orioles over the past two seasons; in fact, they have won nine out of their last ten games against this Rays team during that stretch, and today, they’ll send the struggling Albert Suarez to take on Jeffrey Springs in today’s game three matchup between the division rivals. 

The Orioles have, in spurts, looked like the best team in the MLB. But, there’s one specific scenario where they’ve been down to earth this season, and it’s in game threes – they’re among the worst in the league at closing out sweeps, and are 9-10 on the season in this exact scenario, where they won the first game of the series. 

Want to know the most dominant game three team in the league when coming off of a loss? It’s the Rays, who have won nearly 75% of games in today’s scenario already this season. We’re going to ride that 75% wave today as we hammer the underdog in this game. 

Jeffrey Springs hasn’t been dominant by any stretch of the imagination this season, ranking near the bottom in nearly every statistical category when it comes to starters on the season. He’s really good at getting chases though, and in his only two games he’s started this year, at least he’s gotten better as the games have gone on! That’s just about all of the positives I have to say. 

Suarez, though, was a pitcher I liked early in the season, but it’s absolutely time to fade him. In his three starts since the All-Star Break, he’s posing a WHIP of 1.88 and has allowed 12 runs over his last 13 innings. That’s not ideal, and the Orioles used most of their heavy bullpen arms securing the win yesterday, meaning that they’re going to expect him to go deep into the game today. 

The Rays are one of the best teams in baseball in this scenario, and the O’s cannot close out games. This is an odd one where I hate both starters, but I see the value in taking the dog today – there’s a reason why the sportsbooks value these teams evenly today, when the O’s should clearly have the favor. That’s why we’re going to fade what should be a very public play. 

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays ML

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