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Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals Matchup Preview - March 30th, 2023

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The Twins are scheduled to start Pablo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA) against Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Thursday. This will be the first start of the season for both Lopez and Greinke. In Pablo Lopez's last outing, the Marlins won 4-3 against the Brewers. He pitched 7 innings allowing 0 earned runs with 2 hits. He also recorded 7 strikeouts with 3 walks. The last time Zack Greinke took the mound, the Royals defeated the Guardians 5-2. He finished with 6 IP, 1 K, 1 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 7 hits. Today, Lopez projects for 5.36 innings pitched with 2.6 ER, 5.4 hits, 5.1 strikeouts, and 1.3 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Greinke's average outcome to be 5.12 IP, 3.0 ER, 5.8 H, 3.3 strikeouts, and 1.3 walks.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Pablo Lopez’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (94 mph) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (92.9 mph).

  • Michael A. Taylor's average exit velocity has declined this year; his 89.4-mph EV last year has dropped to 86.7-mph.

  • Gilberto Celestino has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.8%) and will be challenged by the game's deepest RF fences today.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • The Sharp Model X projects Zack Greinke to throw 83 pitches in this matchup (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Nicky Lopez has been unlucky with his batting average this year; his .229 figure is quite a bit lower than his .276 Expected Batting Average (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher Salvador Perez grades out as a horrible pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

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