Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022

Editor

Today's contest between the Brewers and the Dodgers pits THE BAT's 66th ranked SP (Tony Gonsolin) against the 161st ranked SP (Eric Lauer). The rundown on Gonsolin tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 38.6% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (27.5%). Lauer is a four-seam guy (43.1%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Gonsolin deserves something like a 3.47 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.24. On that front, Lauer's ERA sits at 3.64 and his FIP at 4.68.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Tony Gonsolin was in good form in his last game started and allowed 1 ER.

  • Max Muncy has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.9-mph mark.

  • Joey Gallo has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 7th-deepest RF fences today.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.6% FB% via THE BAT projections) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in the league in this game.

  • Keston Hiura has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 38.50 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 25.10 Expected HR/600 (based on THE BAT X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Milwaukee Brewers (24.7 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy lineup today.

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games at home (+13.75 Units / 24% ROI)

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 42 of their last 61 games (+22.80 Units / 31% ROI)

  • Chris Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)