Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Daniel Lynch has relied on his sinker 8.8% less often this year (2.7%) than he did last year (11.5%).

• Michael Massey has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 10.70 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 29.90 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• Nicky Lopez has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.9%) and will be challenged by baseball's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Matt Manning’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (1983 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2063 rpm).

• Victor Reyes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game.

• Projected catcher Eric Haase grades out as a horrible pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 away games (+12.20 Units / 27% ROI)

• Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.30 Units / 31% ROI)