Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022


Today's contest between the Twins and the Royals pits THE BAT's 168th ranked SP (Daniel Lynch) against the 58th ranked SP (Tyler Mahle). The rundown on Lynch tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 45.0% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (31.8%). Mahle is a four-seam guy (51.4%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Lynch deserves something like a 4.08 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.52. On that front, Mahle's ERA sits at 4.26 and his FIP at 3.78.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • The Kansas City Royals outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate.

  • Projected catcher Salvador Perez projects as a horrible pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Tyler Mahle has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.7 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

  • The Kansas City Royals don't have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so Max Kepler is guaranteed to never lose the platoon advantage against the bullpen all game.

  • The Minnesota Twins bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in the game, via THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 65 of their last 112 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)

  • Jorge Polanco has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 26 games at home (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)