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Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - August 15th, 2022

Editor

Today's contest between the Twins and the Royals pits THE BAT's 175th ranked SP (Kris Bubic) against the 63rd ranked SP (Joe Ryan). The rundown on Bubic tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 52.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (28.0%). Ryan is a four-seam guy (58.9%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Bubic deserves something like a 4.77 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 5.02. On that front, Ryan's ERA sits at 3.95 and his FIP at 4.24.

Kansas City Royals Insights

  • Kris Bubic has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed bats in this game.

  • Michael Massey has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

  • Joe Ryan's 91.2 mph fastball velocity this year is in the 15th percentile among starters.

  • The Kansas City Royals don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Luis Arraez is guaranteed to never face a bullpen mismatch the whole game.

  • Byron Buxton has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 109 games (+10.45 Units / 8% ROI)

  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 26 away games (+14.75 Units / 53% ROI)

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)

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