Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - October 5th, 2022


Left-hander Austin Gomber is expected to start today for Colorado, while left-hander Clayton Kershaw gets the nod at home for Los Angeles. Gomber enters this contest with a 5.62 ERA, backed up by a 4.51 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Kershaw, meanwhile, has a 2.56 FIP underlying his 2.30 ERA. The last time Austin Gomber was on the bump, the Rockies lost 3-8 versus the Pirates. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 2 walks. Kershaw's last start was against the Rockies, when he recorded the win as the Dodgers were victorious 10-1. Over 6 innings pitched, he allowed 0 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 2 walks.

Colorado Rockies Insights

  • The Sharp Model X expects Austin Gomber to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.

  • The Sharp Model X projects Jose Iglesias in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

  • The Colorado Rockies projected batting order today (.287 projected wOBA via The Sharp Model X) projects quite a bit worse than their .310 wOBA this year.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • The Colorado Rockies have 8 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Clayton Kershaw in this matchup, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.

  • Miguel Vargas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen profiles as the best in the game, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.60 Units / 78% ROI)

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.65 Units / 8% ROI)

  • Max Muncy has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 44% ROI)