Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Matchup Preview - September 25th, 2022

Today's contest between the Rangers and the Guardians pits THE BAT's 114th ranked SP (Aaron Civale) against the 178th ranked SP (Cole Ragans). The rundown on Civale tells us that he leans on his cut-fastball 33.5% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (26.8%). Ragans is a four-seam guy (43.9%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Civale deserves something like a 3.86 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 5.29. On that front, Ragans's ERA sits at 5.40 and his FIP at 5.64.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Aaron Civale has utilized his cut-fastball 9.4% more often this year (33.5%) than he did last season (24.1%).

• Myles Straw has been unlucky this year, compiling a .254 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .292 — a .038 disparity.

• Amed Rosario hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and faces baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Cole Ragans's 2390 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 86th percentile among SPs.

• Kole Calhoun has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

• Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 24 away games (+16.95 Units / 57% ROI)

• Dane Dunning has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 57% ROI)