Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


Today's contest between the White Sox and the Guardians pits THE BAT's 21st ranked SP (Shane Bieber) against the 179th ranked SP (Johnny Cueto). The rundown on Bieber tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 35.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (29.4%). Cueto is a sinker guy (25.8%) who brings a changeup as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Bieber deserves something like a 2.84 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.83. On that front, Cueto's ERA sits at 3.09 and his FIP at 3.95.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Shane Bieber's fastball velocity has decreased 2 mph this year (90.1 mph) below where it was last season (92.1 mph).

  • Will Benson is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).

  • The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the league, via THE BAT.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Johnny Cueto has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 7.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Yasmani Grandal has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.

  • Andrew Vaughn has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.50 Units / 62% ROI)

  • Jake Burger has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+15.20 Units / 89% ROI)