Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022


Today's contest between the White Sox and the Guardians pits THE BAT's 116th ranked SP (Aaron Civale) against the 19th ranked SP (Dylan Cease). The rundown on Civale tells us that he leans on his cut-fastball 33.2% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (27.2%). Cease is a four-seam guy (40.3%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Civale deserves something like a 3.92 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 5.40. On that front, Cease's ERA sits at 2.16 and his FIP at 2.89.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

  • Aaron Civale has relied on his cutter 9.1% more often this season (33.2%) than he did last season (24.1%).

  • Will Benson is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst of all teams today).

  • Myles Straw has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (47.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest RF fences today.

Chicago White Sox Insights

  • Dylan Cease's 2504 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 98th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • A.J. Pollock has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (55% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

  • Projected catcher Yasmani Grandal profiles as a good pitch framer, according to THE BAT projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)

  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 23 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)

  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)