Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Wednesday the Cincinnati Reds (60-96) will battle the Pittsburgh Pirates (59-97). Oddsmakers peg the Pirates as the slight favorite with an implied win probablity of 52%, leaving the Reds with a 48% chance to record a win. Based on the current odds the Reds have an implied team total of 3.66 compared to 3.84 for the Pirates.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Luis Cessa has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed bats in this game.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Today’s version of the Reds projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .288 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .304 overall projected rate.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bryan Reynolds has been lucky with his home runs this year; his 26.60 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 13.90 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

• The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the worst in Major League Baseball, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)