Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Johnny Cueto (165th ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for White Sox as they battle the Twins and Josh Winder (241st ranked SP) at Target Field. The quick scouting report on Cueto: his main fastball is a sinker, which he uses 25.5% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a changeup (20.3%). Meanwhile, Winder primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (43.0%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (30.7%). The Sharp Model X projects Cueto for 3.0 earned runs and 4.7 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Winder is forecasted for 2.6 earned runs and 4.2 strikeouts.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Johnny Cueto’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2143 rpm) has been a significant dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2193 rpm).

• Extreme groundball batters like Leury Garcia generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Josh Winder.

• Chicago's 89.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in the majors: #7 overall.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Josh Winder is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% via The Sharp Model projections) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• Nick Gordon has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

• Luis Arraez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will be challenged by the league's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games (+3.15 Units / 9% ROI)

• Nick Gordon has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)