Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins Matchup Preview - September 27th, 2022

2 years ago

Editor

The White Sox are scheduled to start Lance Lynn (7-6, 4.02 ERA) against Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober (1-3, 3.71 ERA) on Tuesday. Lance Lynn suffered a loss in his last outing, as the White Sox lost to the Guardians 2-8. He pitched 6 innings allowing 3 earned runs with 9 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Bailey Ober took the mound, he recorded a loss as the Twins got beat by the Royals 2-5. He finished with 5 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, while allowing 3 earned runs on 7 hits. Today, Lynn projects for 6.22 innings pitched with 2.4 ER, 5.5 hits, 6.6 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Ober's average outcome to be 5.50 IP, 2.1 ER, 4.8 H, 4.9 strikeouts, and 1.3 walks.

Chicago White Sox Insights

Lance Lynn has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
Eloy Jimenez has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph average.
Chicago's 89.1-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in MLB: #7 overall.

Minnesota Twins Insights

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Ober has relied on his secondary pitches 7.3% more often this season (49.3%) than he did last season (42%).
Gary Sanchez has been unlucky with his home runs this year; his 20.40 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit lower than his 32.00 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).
Luis Arraez has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games at home (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 72 of their last 139 games (+9.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 73 of his last 109 games (+29.90 Units / 22% ROI)